For a quick second, it seemed like a federal commerce court docket would halt President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, leaving everybody to surprise what that might imply for value hikes. However by the tip of the next day one other court docket had stepped in so we’re again to questioning when and if reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s proposed 25% Apple tariff will kick in. So you may forgive us if we do not sound very sure about how all of this might have an effect on the worth of the brand new iPhone.
We will not even assure that will probably be known as iPhone 17, contemplating Apple could rebrand its working system this fall in order that the present iOS18 is changed by iOS 26.
Apple spent a lot of the early a part of this yr dodging tariffs, stockpiling telephones earlier than tariffs took impact and making an exemption record for a lot of of its merchandise. However its luck appeared to expire after Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner introduced throughout a Could 1 earnings name that US iPhone manufacturing would largely be sourced from India. A couple of weeks later, Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made exterior the US.
Is that tariff on high of the paused reciprocal tariffs? Whereas it could be unrealistic for Apple to move alongside the overall price of the tariff to shoppers (who’s going to purchase a $4,000 iPhone?), it additionally appears unlikely that the tech big may soak up the prices of a 170% tariff hike (that is 25% Apple tariff + 145% reciprocal tariff on China, the place Apple has produced most of its iPhones).
Plus, there are many elements that may have an effect on the worth of an iPhone, together with manufacturing prices and the general well being of the US economic system. My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing telephones for CNET since 2016 and monitoring costs over time. He says the new iPhone is due for a value hike no matter what occurs with tariffs.
Apple didn’t reply to a request for remark for an earlier model of this story.
We can’t know the precise value for the subsequent iPhone till its launch, which is anticipated to be in September. However we have pored over all of the leaks, rumors and predictions about costs and we discovered methods that can assist you save if a brand new iPhone is in your future.
Learn extra: Wish to Purchase a New iPhone? Now’s Not the Time and Here is Why
How tariffs may have an effect on the price of the subsequent iPhone
Amid Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, increased reciprocal tariffs are at the moment on pause. Nevertheless, Trump took to social media on Could 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made exterior the US, though the timeline is unclear. There’s at the moment a ten% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on items from China, the place Apple nonetheless manufactures most of its merchandise. These charges may additionally begin to rise in July when the preliminary tariff pause expires, which may result in increased costs on all the things — together with the rumored iPhone 17.
The tech big has moved some US iPhone manufacturing from China to India, which at the moment has a decrease tariff price. Nevertheless, Trump known as out Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner to as a substitute transfer iPhone manufacturing to the US. Most specialists contemplate this an unrealistic demand, particularly within the brief time period, due to increased labor and manufacturing prices within the US. Estimates have prompt {that a} US-made iPhone would price as a lot as $3,500.
That leaves costs for the subsequent iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration known as the exemption record “short-term” in early April, saying that exemptions would finish in “a month or two.” Across the similar time, Trump mentioned that semiconductors, which energy tech merchandise, will finally be positioned in a unique “tariff bucket.” Nevertheless, no particulars have been shared concerning the timeline or anticipated tariff percentages.
With all of the reprieves showing to be short-term, tariffs may nonetheless doubtlessly have an effect on costs by the point the rumored iPhone 17 is predicted to be launched.
If the unique reciprocal tariff pause expires, as an illustration, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% beginning in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that nation would soar from 30% to 145% in August. It is unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff could be along with or as a substitute of particular person international locations’ import duties.
Consultants level out {that a} tariff price hike would not essentially imply an iPhone’s value would enhance on the similar price however most count on not less than some affect.
And the place the cellphone is assembled is barely a part of the tariff equation. Apple sources elements for the iPhone from dozens of different international locations, which may additionally doubtlessly have an effect on the worth.
Based mostly on the place tariffs stand now, this is how a lot you could possibly doubtlessly pay for the subsequent iPhone primarily based on present iPhone 16 costs. These are our estimates and never official pricing from Apple:
Potential iPhone value with reciprocal tariffs
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $659 | $755 | $779 | $1,468 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $912 | $1,045 | $1,078 | $2,031 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,022 | $1,171 | $1,208 | $2,276 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,099 | $1,259 | $1,299 | $2,448 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,319 | $1,511 | $1,559 | $2,938 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $1,759 | $2,015 | $2,079 | $3,918 |
If the 25% Apple tariff takes impact, this is the potential value enhance for a brand new iPhone, primarily based on the present iPhone 16 costs. Once more, Apple is unlikely to boost costs at a 1-to-1 price with tariff hikes however this desk incorporates reciprocal and potential Apple particular tariffs to calculate potential costs:
Potential iPhone costs with reciprocal and Apple tariffs mixed
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $809 | $904 | $928 | $1,617 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $1,119 | $1,252 | $1,285 | $2,238 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,254 | $1,403 | $1,440 | $2,508 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,349 | $1,508 | $1,548 | $2,697 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,619 | $1,810 | $1,858 | $3,237 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $2,159 | $2,414 | $2,478 | $4,317 |
What else may trigger the brand new iPhone’s value to extend?
Trump instantly criticized retailers like Amazon and Walmart after they prompt that tariffs may end in increased costs so it stands to purpose that Apple will not immediately blame tariffs for potential value hikes that might provoke a Trump tirade.
Somewhat, Apple may attribute the worth enhance to improved options and design prices. No matter tariffs, Apple has plans to boost iPhone costs this yr, The Wall Avenue Journal reported.
Consultants say Apple could also be overdue for a value enhance anyway. It has been 5 years for the reason that primary iPhone mannequin elevated in value and every iteration of the iPhone usually improves on options from the earlier model.
Holland notes that the bottom iPhone mannequin hasn’t gone up in value since 2020. His analysis factors to the usual iPhone mannequin’s value rising roughly each 5 years, between $50 and $130. Based mostly on this proof and the iPhone 16’s present value of $829, we may count on the brand new iPhone to price someplace between $879 and $959.
What’s going to the iPhone 17 Air price?
Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Professional in value. Nevertheless, a March Bloomberg report prompt the cellphone may price about $900, much like the present iPhone 16 Plus’s price ticket. These estimates are primarily based on the present prices and should not embody the potential affect tariffs may have on an ultrathin iPhone’s value.
How the economic system may have an effect on iPhone costs
Uncertainty within the US economic system — partly due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many cautious about what’s to return. Whereas the current settlement with China to pause tariffs helped the inventory market to largely recuperate from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve affords solely short-term reduction.
Issues concerning the dangers of upper unemployment and better inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for decreasing rates of interest. Larger rates of interest could cause firms like Apple to tug again on spending and funding. Mixed with increased tariffs, that pullback may doubtlessly result in world provide chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones accessible out there may result in increased costs.
If inflation resurges, rising prices may power Apple to extend the subsequent iPhone’s value.
One tiny vibrant facet, in concept, is {that a} weakening economic system may power Apple to carry off on elevating costs so it might keep aggressive. However that won’t supply a lot comfort when you’re frightened about spending cash due to a possible recession.
Will older iPhones price extra, too?
One strategy to save on Apple merchandise is to purchase final yr’s mannequin as a substitute of the latest launch. Nevertheless, if the brand new iPhone is dramatically costlier when it is launched, demand may enhance for the older fashions and that might result in value hikes on older fashions, too.
The flip facet of that is that if the brand new iPhone’s costs rise and you’ve got an older iPhone, your previous iPhone would additionally seemingly enhance in worth, Holland mentioned.
Buying and selling or promoting a used iPhone might help offset the fee when you do resolve to purchase the brand new iPhone.
Different methods Apple may elevate costs
Even when Apple decides to carry the subsequent iPhone’s value regular, there are different methods for the tech big to recoup elevated prices.
Apple may doubtlessly offset the affect of tariffs by elevating the worth on its companies — together with its music, information and knowledge plans — in response to provide chain professional Joe Hudicka.
“We’ll see these markups within the subscription companies first as a result of they will seem smaller,” he mentioned. “Shoppers will nonetheless pay, simply not suddenly.”
Ought to we imagine rumors and hypothesis about iPhone costs?
So severely, how a lot is a brand new iPhone going to price? The reality is, we won’t say with any certainty what the ultimate numbers can be. Our assessments are primarily based on ever-changing tariff insurance policies, previous pricing traits, rumors and leaks which can be generally primarily based on insider data. However till Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we will solely supply our greatest estimates for the way a lot the ultimate price ticket can be.
